At ETS, we don’t just fill jobs — we track the trends behind every hire, every outcome, and every early quit. Why? Because the more we understand why people leave, the better we can help our clients build teams that last.
And when we looked at data from over 1,000 placements across Vermont and Upstate New York, one factor stood out:
The longer the commute, the more likely someone is to quit.
But it’s not that simple — and what it doesn’t affect is just as interesting.
What the Data Shows
Our team analyzed thousands of real placements from 2024 and 2025, measuring how commute distance impacted retention outcomes. We focused on two regions — Vermont and Plattsburgh/Upstate NY — and looked specifically at voluntary quits vs. successful completions.
Here’s what we found:
Vermont:
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Every additional mile = 0.9% drop in the chance of a positive outcome (still employed vs. quitting)
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A 20-mile commute = nearly 20% lower odds of staying on the job
Upstate NY:
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Every additional mile = 0.54% drop in retention odds
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A 20-mile commute = around 11% decrease in success likelihood
This trend holds true across industries, but is especially pronounced in entry- to mid-level roles.
Before You Redraw Your Hiring Radius…
Let’s be clear: commute distance is a signal, not a verdict.
This model doesn’t account for other key factors that influence retention, such as:
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Wages and benefits
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Shift timing and flexibility
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Seniority or job type
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Access to transportation
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Work environment and culture
But the data is meaningful — because even when all else is equal, distance increases the risk of a candidate choosing to leave.
Not because they can’t do the job, but because life gets in the way: car troubles, long drives, fatigue, family responsibilities, rising gas prices.
What About Terminations?
Now here’s where it gets even more interesting:
While long commutes are linked to a higher likelihood of quitting, they’re not linked to higher termination rates.
In fact, in our analysis, candidates with longer commutes were slightly more likely to finish their assignment than be let go for performance or attendance.
That might seem counterintuitive — but it actually makes perfect sense.
Commute Tolerance = Behavioral Signal
If someone is willing to drive 30+ miles each way for work, day after day, that tells you something:
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They plan ahead
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They show up
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They stick it out, even when it’s not convenient
In other words, they’re demonstrating time management, discipline, and grit — the very traits that often correlate with long-term performance and low disciplinary risk.
So while commute distance may increase the odds that someone chooses to leave, it doesn’t make them any more likely to be let go.
If anything, those who overcome a long commute tend to be more resilient.
How ETS Uses This Insight to Support Our Clients
We don’t just hand you a placement and hope for the best.
At ETS, our recruiters use insights like this to help you make better, more informed hiring decisions — especially when geography, transportation, or labor availability are challenges.
Here’s how we turn data into action:
✅ We ask smarter questions upfront
– Our process isn’t guesswork. It’s built on years of real-world insight, refined strategies, and a deep understanding of what drives long-term success in each placement.
✅ We screen for stability
– Not just whether someone can get to work, but whether their setup is likely to last.
✅ We build commute-sensitive pipelines
– Prioritizing proximity when it matters, and educating candidates on expectations when it doesn’t.
✅ We advise on retention strategy
– Helping you build schedules, offer flexibility, or create ride-share partnerships to close the gap.
The Bottom Line
Retention isn’t just about pay or management.
It’s about the whole picture — and commute plays a bigger role than most people think.
If you’re seeing early turnover, commute might be the silent contributor.
We can help you diagnose it — and fix it.
Let’s work together to build a workforce that doesn’t just show up — but sticks around.
